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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd