A mere 60 days in the past that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
